Playing The Odds: Finally a Full Slate Saturday

It’s been a while since we’ve had an MLS Saturday with all 5 games (a full slate for the 14-team league that also has one Thursday and one Sunday game most weeks), being that we’re looking to improve on our 4-4 mark this season and win BIG while we’re at it, we couldn’t be happier! It’s about effing time is all we can say.

The Fox Soccer Channel MLS Game of the Week sees league leaders New England (+150 on the moneyline at BetUs.Com) visiting Fortress BMO to take on a Toronto FC (+155) squad that’s gone through a major makeover just in time for the stretch run. While the Revs are the second-best road team in MLS, going 6-3-1, they’ve also got a -1 goal differential so luck has certainly been on NE’s side. Not only is TFC tough at BMO, but they need this one much more than New England. TFC +155 is the pick.

Real Salt Lake takes the trip to Columbus to face the Crew in a battle of second-place teams in the Western and Eastern Conference, respectively. It’s tempting to take RSL because they’re +285 and should be brimming with confidence following last Saturday’s thrilling 4-3 loss at Houston, but Sigi’s squad has been too good at home to risk any scratch on RSL. Take Columbus -120.

The moneyline for Colorado at DC United reflects the complete chaos that has enveloped the Rapids, as Colorado is +325 on the moneyline. Tempting, but I refuse to bet on the Rapids until they show any semblance of consistency. However much it might kill me, the pick is the Scum -135.

Kansas City is an even money at bet at home, playing host to FC Dallas (+225). The Wizards, obviously, haven’t been tearing it up at The Cab this season, but they’ve been respectable and they need this game. The pick is even money on Kansas City.

The strangest moneyline of the week is resurgent San Jose +275 at struggling Chivas USA (-115). Unless the oddsmakers know something I don’t, taking the ‘Quakes in this one feels like stealing. I don’t normally condone theft, but in this case it’s too good to pass up. San Jose +275 is the pick.

We’re taking these five games together as a straight, five-game parlay. The odds of hitting it about 60-to-1. I’m already thinking of what I’m going to do with that scratch. Odds are that I’ll be using it to bet on my Red Bulls to beat the Houston Dynamo tomorrow.

Playing The Odds: Beijing 2008 Preliminary Final Matches

This past Saturday, we bet three MLS games, going 2-1 on games, and a miserable 0-3 on the over/under. Not just because of Saturday, I’ve always thought the over/under bet in soccer, or in any sport for that matter, was the toughest. There are too many variables that you can’t control for to make it worth throwing good money at.

There are eight Olympic soccer matches tomorrow. I want to win big so I’m going with two parlays (odds are from Betus.Com).

Parlay number one consists of the four 5:00 AM EST matches:

Netherlands are heavily favored (-260) over Japan but were taking them anyway since we’re going to try to make the money with our other picks.

It’s not a terrible rule for a pro gambler, but I never bet against my teams so I’m taking the USA, slight underdogs at +210, in a match where a draw is the favored result, over Nigeria.

Can’t stand the Italians, especially since American traitor Guiseppe Rossi is scoring goals for the Azzurri, but Cameroon hasn’t been good enough to beat Italy so I’m taking the Guidos at +125.

Honduras has probably been the worst team in the tournament thus far, but at +365, I’ve got to take them over South Korea.

Parlay number two consists of the 7:45 AM EST matches and I’ll post it tomorrow morning.

Playing The Odds: Our Picks For Saturday August 9

First up is Toronto FC visiting The Dick to take on the Colorado Rapids, Fox Soccer Channel’s MLS game of the week. Bet US lists the Rapids as pretty heavy home favorites — Colorado -150 vs. Toronto +360 — with the over/under at 2.5 goals. As tempting as it is to try to win some big bucks by betting on TFC, the numbers don’t justify it, as the Reds are a brutal 1-7 with only 10 goals scored away from Fortress BMO this season.

We’re taking the Rapids and the over.

Next on the docket for MLS today is a the Chicago Fire visiting New England. Sensing a post-Superliga letdown by the Revs, we’re going with the underdogs in this one, taking the Fire +260. The over/under is 2.5 and we’re taking the over, expecting a 2-1 Fire win.

The final game for today finds a rematch of last season’s Western Conference first round playoffs, with Kansas City hosting Chivas USA. Oddsmakers are favoring a draw in this one, as both the Wizards (+120) and the Goats (+185) are underdogs. We can’t really imagine that Chivas can get it done at the CAB without Sacha Kljestan, and Ante Razov and Mykel Galindo still trying to get their timing back. Although, Kansas City’s offense is anemic so a single goal would be enough for the Goats to get a result.

I don’t see that happening, which is why I’m going with the Wizards and the under.